Les analyses sur l’évolution du cours des crypto-monnaies sont toujours à prendre avec des pincettes, notamment du fait que d’une personne à une autre, les prédictions peuvent varier du tout au tout.
Il n’empêche que certains analystes sont plus écoutés que d’autres, en particulier lorsqu’ils font l’effort d’expliquer leur vision. Ce week-end, c’est Murad Mahmudov, le fondateur du fonds crypto Adaptive Capital qui a pris le temps d’expliquer sur Twitter son point de vue. Dans un thread, il a donné pas moins de 20 raisons pour lesquelles le Bitcoin devrait continuer de grimper – sous condition qu’il reste au dessus det son récent support situé entre 5 450$ et 5 550$.
0/20. My list of 20 reasons why I think that if 5450-5550 area holds — its very bullish & megamoonsoon is still on the table:
I repeat, IF, 5450-5550 area holds, THEN, it's quite bullish.
Saturday Megathread: pic.twitter.com/KBbMj8OdU9
— Murad (@MustStopMurad) May 4, 2019
Une analyse technique sur le cours du Bitcoin
Au delà de l’analyse fondamentale, Murad Mahmudov a voulu privilégier l’analyse technique avec les différents indicateurs pour déterminer une tendance pour les mois à venir. Si tous les indicateurs ne sont pas forcément totalement pertinents, ils donnent toutefois un bon sentiment sur le potentiel du Bitcoin.
1/20. Resistance flipped support on this orderblock.
4 Higher Highs.
3 Higher Lows.As the urban legend goes, consolidation patterns that break out upwards *even though their neckline/confirmation line is in an incline*. break upwards particularly violently when/if they do. pic.twitter.com/pAyTeqmxtP
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
2/20. Similarly to the sharp move from 4100 to 5000 — above us right now is air — area that is low in VPVR density — not a lot of value negotiation has taken place in this area in general. If we push, we push hard. pic.twitter.com/EVXOOOm5im
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
3/20. Your typically very sensitive StochRSI isn't even overbought on the daily. pic.twitter.com/Oa01cGOUJ5
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
4/20. Another way of looking at similar things / different curve + if that was an ascending channel with a Tether-induced fakeout in the middle — Daily. This curve is still intact but may be too ambitious though. pic.twitter.com/vknlCmmE3R
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
5/20. Daily RSI broken out of here already even with this drop just now. pic.twitter.com/zNXa3rlsTt
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
6/20. Weekly Looks very bullish, man — already fully broken through EMA89 and MA50 which both caught multiple local bottom and top areas in both previous and current cycles. pic.twitter.com/huDxPgU4gp
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
7/20. The Weekly RSI looks like its *breaking through* the level of resistance equivalent to the two areas people have been comparing our current situation / place in the cycle with.
That is bullish. pic.twitter.com/qUdwEzE34p
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
8/20. A large number of 4H candles for the past several weeks have been getting quickly bought like pancakes on Sunday afternoon. this Trendline on the 4H HELD just now. pic.twitter.com/gM0a1lyNUR
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
9/20. If the trendline above falls through, we also have this trendline as well:
Kinda cool how the blue prism 'predicted' the next top of the subsequent upswing, right?
That July 2018 dip, man. pic.twitter.com/mF6QPntG9M
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
10/20. Finding support right at the middle of the Bollinger Bands MA20 line, as of now, it looks like. pic.twitter.com/P7d4uTsZQo
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
11/20. This is speculative on my part, but if the above is right, we could see something crazy like this: pic.twitter.com/dOswmFaNx5
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
12/20. Update on the Penguin pic from a couple of days ago.
Once again – are we at support turned resistance turned support here? pic.twitter.com/F7Ew4PtPUo— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
13/20. Additional perks, bulletpoints, and miscs for y'all:
Update on L/S RSI. Typically over the last 18 months, the current situation with L/S and L/S RSI would be very bullish. pic.twitter.com/KPLBGoKz4q
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
14/20. Shorts still largely unsqueezed. pic.twitter.com/UzdyuwuB0q
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
15/20. BitMex orderbook bidsum > asksum even after this drop just now. (My current theory, roughly: funding rates = active trades = impatient plebs. sums = limits = patient pros’ continuously recalculated and adapting current *view* of where they want to get a good ‘local’ deal
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
16/20. Predicted BitMex funding rates next 8h epoch already jumping into negative, and to a full -0.1%. Jeez, lol. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) pic.twitter.com/Mk0pKjv40n
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
17/20. 15min RSI regular bull div just printed. pic.twitter.com/MhUrwierr2
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
18/20. Volumes on red candles smaller than volume on green. pic.twitter.com/Cdf4YemU17
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
19/20. Invalidation?
a. The general parabola I drew on the dailies is somewhat subjective but a clear break of its looser variants would obviously be the first signal to be more concerned.
b. Then, if we go below 5400 then it’s more consolidation before the next sharp movement.— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
20/20
I personally lean more towards short/midterm BULLISH continuation, but for those interested — the Bear Case is:
1. This spooky trendline conspiracy theory.
2. NVTSignal
3. BFX Risk / Premium is a generally bearish signal.
4. Tensorcharts resistance pic.twitter.com/4stDfI0601— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) 4 mai 2019
Et vous, quelle est votre vision sur les prochains mois ?
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